Analysis: Washington’s blueprint for a Sugar Bowl win over Texas

For Washington to win, what has to happen?

It’s a question we posed to UW’s assistant coaches throughout the past several weeks, collecting bullet points for a postseason disposal of No. 3 Texas (12-1) for the second consecutive season. And while it’s true that games aren’t played on paper, until 5:45 p.m. Monday, paper’s all we got.

So … want a blueprint for a Washington win in the Sugar Bowl?

Here’s a five-step formula.

sugar bowl coverage Washington 37, Texas 31

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Washington will win if …

UW’s interior offensive line contains defensive linemen T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II.

A year ago, UW effectively bowled over Texas in the Alamo Bowl, amassing 158 rushing yards with 5.6 yards per carry and a 42-yard Wayne Taulapapa touchdown. That languishing Longhorn defense included linemen T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II, who combined for four tackles without a sack or a tackle for loss.

(UW quarterback Michael Penix Jr. was also not sacked in the game.)

In the year since, Texas’ interior menaces have continued to emerge, with Sweat being named Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year and Murphy taking home Defensive Lineman of the Year honors. The 6-foot-4, 362-pound Sweat won the Outland Trophy (which honors college football’s top interior lineman) and was named a unanimous All-American as well.

UW, meanwhile, touts an entirely new interior offensive line — featuring redshirt freshman center Parker Brailsford (6-2, 275), junior left guard Nate Kalepo (6-6, 327) and junior right guard Julius Buelow (6-8, 313).

Can Brailsford, Kalepo, Buelow and Co. manage Sweat and Murphy? Can an offensive line that recently won the Joe Moore Award continue to protect Penix, while drilling holes for downhill running back Dillon Johnson?

“We obviously have to take care of Mike. That’s a big part,” offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said. “They have a phenomenal defensive line. They’re really, really well coached. They strike well, use their hands well, and they’re talented, and they play with great motor. So taking care of Mike and the line of scrimmage will be a big-time test.”

Added succinct Washington wide receiver Jalen McMillan, “Their D-line’s cool, but we have the best O-line in the country, so I’m not really worried.”

The Huskies’ wide receivers handle a physical Texas secondary.

Opponents have learned not to test the Longhorns’ run defense — which ranks second nationally in fewest attempts against per game (28.15), third in yards allowed per game (80.85), fourth in rushing touchdowns allowed (7) and fifth in opponent yards per carry (2.87).

So naturally, opponents throw.

Specifically, Texas’ secondary has seen an average of 35.7 pass attempts per game, more than all but seven teams in the nation.

(Washington’s opponents, by comparison, have attempted 40.1 passes per game — the most in the nation. Against Penix and Co., there has been constant pressure to score quickly.)

If put in a similar position, Washington is well suited to succeed, with a Heisman Trophy finalist at quarterback and a trio of established wideouts in Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan.

But will Texas’ physicality impact UW’s efficiency?

“They haven’t changed,” UW associate head coach and wide receivers coach JaMarcus Shephard said. “They were super physical last year. They’re going to get their hands on you early in routes. They’re going to contest everything you do. They’re going to make you earn every single yard.”

Added Grubb: “Our receivers have to have good secondary releases. They’re really physical in the back half. That’s something they do really, really well that can surprise you if you haven’t played football for a little while. You get out into the back half and they’ve got their hands on you. They hold and grab and press and push a lot. So we just have to get used to the physicality in the back end. If we can clear ourselves from the defenders, I think we have a chance to get open for sure.”

UW makes Texas’ offense one-dimensional.

In UW’s 34-31 win over Oregon in the Pac-12 title game, the Ducks — whose 5.85 yards per carry sits third in the nation — were unexpectedly neutralized up front. Standout running back Bucky Irving managed just 20 rushing yards and 2.2 yards per carry, a stunning disappearing act in the desert.

Against Texas’ physical rushing attack, can UW do it again?

“We’ve got to do a great job with the run game,” UW co-defensive coordinator Chuck Morrell said. “They pride themselves on being able to establish the ground game. If you look at their offense statistically, they’re very well balanced. So it starts with the run.”

Indeed, Texas sits 24^th in rushing (189.1 yards per game) and 25^th in yards per carry (4.93). Though the Longhorns lost starting running back Jonathon Brooks for the season, CJ Baxter, Jaydon Blue and Keilan Robinson are satisfactory stand-ins.

A year ago, the Huskies held Texas to 51 rushing yards and 2.8 yards per carry in the Alamo Bowl.

For defensive linemen Tuli Letuligasenoa and Ulumoo Ale, edges Bralen Trice and Zion Tupuola-Fetui and linebackers Edefuan Ulofoshio, Alphonzo Tuputala and more, that’s the priority.

UW’s defense limits explosive plays.

With a month to game plan, what will Texas coach Steve Sarkisian cook up?

That’s a disquieting thought for a UW defense that has surrendered 29 plays of 30 yards or more, ranking 92^nd in the nation. (Texas has compiled 38 such plays and sits 10^th, six spots behind Washington.)

It’s natural to highlight the obvious match ups — with Husky defensive backs Jabbar Muhammad, Elijah Jackson and Mishael Powell pitted against Texas wideouts Xavier Worthy (73 catches, 969 receiving yards, 5 TD) and Adonai Mitchell (51, 813, 10) and tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders (39, 607 2).

But that’s not the area keeping Morrell up most.

“I think the other key, core element is their screen game,” he said. “That’s a thing they’ve hit a ton of explosives on over the course of the season.

“It’s been something that’s consistently showed up [against UW], and our guys know it. We’ve put a lot of emphasis on it in the back half of the season. There are plays we’re practicing that we’re not even seeing run in the games every single week. Because we knew that was a core improvement area for us.”

UW embraces the environment.

The Huskies have won eight consecutive road games, dating back to 2022.

This would be a ninth.

Because, regardless of what the program states, the Superdome will not be a neutral field. The proximity (roughly 500 miles) to Austin, Texas, and difficulty of travel for UW fans have further emphasized that fact. When the Huskies kick off on New Year’s Day, they’ll do so amid a swell of burnt orange for the second consecutive season.

It’ll be an undeniably hostile environment.

Which might also be what Washington needs.

Washington, which squeezes every motivational drop out of its underdog status, which has overcome elements and injuries and opponents with a target branded on its back.

These Huskies like hostile.

Perhaps, in the undeserved adversity, they’ll feel at home.