Here are a few more stats and numbers pointing out how the fourth quarters have turned against the Seahawks this season.
I wrote a bit about Seattle’s fourth-quarter issues in a story for Tuesday’s Seattle Times.
A few other interesting (or maybe excruciating) numbers had to sit on the cutting room floor, so I thought I’d pass them along here. And not really to rub it in or anything, but to point out how unlikely some of this has been — which one could point to as thinking that the worm eventually has to turn.
— Anybody who looks at Pro Football Reference knows one of the more entertaining aspects of their site are the play-by-plays, which include a calculation of a probable winning percentage after every play. I can’t imagine any team has ever lost three games in which it had such a high percentage of winning as late in the game as Seattle has this season.
But consider that Seattle had a 94 percent chance, according to PFF, of winning the St. Louis game prior to a a third-and-15 with 1:54 to play. The Rams picked that up on a 21-yard pass from Nick Foles to Kenny Britt and then went on to tie the game and win in overtime.
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Last week against Cincinnati, the Seahawks had a 99 percent chance of winning as the fourth quarter began and a 96.5 percent chance with 10:50 remaining as they faced a third-and-two, ahead 24-14. Seattle didn’t get it, and the odds dropped precipitously from there as the Bengals rallied to force overtime and win.
And on Sunday against Carolina the Seahawks had a 98 percent chance of winning as late as 8:08 to play as the Panthers began the drive that would cut the score to 23-20.
Maybe this is all some sort of karmic payback for Seattle’s winning the NFC title game against Green Bay in January after being judged to have a 0.1 percent chance of winning with 5:04 left, following a Russell Wilson interception with the Packers ahead 19-7.
— As detailed in the story Tuesday, opposing quarterbacks have now completed 49-of-59 passes in the fourth quarter for 582 yards and four touchdowns. In the rest of games, opposing quarterbacks are 77-133 for 830 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. That includes Cam Newton going 12-15 for 162 yards in the fourth quarter Sunday after he had been 8-21 for 107 yards and two interceptions in the first three quarters.
— And as also detailed in the story, but worth reviewing again, is that Seattle has scored just one touchdown in the fourth quarter this season on offense, that coming in Week 1 at St. Louis. Since then, Seattle has had 18 fourth-quarter possessions. Those have resulted in four field goals, six punts, three fumbles, one interception, and four times that the clock simply ran out (including against the Bears and the Lions when the Seahawks were trying to run out the clock and then unsuccessful final possessions against the Rams and Panthers).