The NFL playoff field is set and all roads lead to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, the site of this season’s Super Bowl. As you would expect, the top seeds in each conference, the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers, are the betting favorites to win the AFC and NFC, respectively, but they should have plenty of competition, with 10 teams having finished with at least 10 wins this season.
Based on each team’s true talent level — which is derived by looking at its actual win rate and its projected win rate based on total points scored and allowed — we can project the playoffs 1,000 times and see which playoff teams are most likely to reach the Super Bowl.
Here are the most likely matchups based on those simulations. Also included are the implied money line and odds for each contest.
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
23% chance (implied money line: +350, implied odds: 3-1)
The Ravens beat the 49ers in Baltimore earlier this season, and this rematch would also have San Francisco looking for redemption from its 34-31 loss in the 2013 Super Bowl. This version of the 49ers is much more efficient, especially on defense. In 2012, the 49ers held opponents to four points per game fewer than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play. This season, opponents are scoring a whopping nine points per game fewer than expected. By that metric, only the New England Patriots were better on the defensive side of the ball in 2019. The Ravens were fifth.
Baltimore Ravens vs. New Orleans Saints
15% chance (implied money line: +600, implied odds: 6-1)
Lamar Jackson has been the story of the year. Baltimore’s game-changing quarterback broke Michael Vick’s single-season rushing record (1,206 rushing yards in 2019), was one of three quarterbacks to earn five AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors in a single season and is the odds-on favorite to win the MVP award. The 22-year-old also accounted for the most offensive touchdowns this season (43, nine more than any other player) and was the most valuable passer of 2019 per ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating.
In this prospective matchup, Jackson and the Ravens would face a Saints defense that has allowed 5.4 yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks this season, the third most behind the Houston Texans (5.6) and Seattle Seahawks (6.0).
Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers
12% chance (implied money line: +750, implied odds: 7-1)
Green Bay Packers linebacker Za’Daruius Smith was the third-best edge rusher of 2019, per the game charters at Pro Football Focus, while Sports Info Solutions credited the 27-year-old with 73 quarterback disruptions (13½ sacks, 59 hurries, 39 hits and 22 knockdowns) this season, the second most among linebackers and the third most overall.
Green Bay will need Smith and the rest of the defense to shine during the playoffs because the team’s offense has been inconsistent this season, especially against teams with winning records. The Packers scored 2.3 points per drive with a 68% red-zone efficiency against teams that finished at or below .500. Those figures dropped to 1.9 points per drive and 58% efficiency against teams with winning records. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers’s passer rating was also higher against teams at or below .500 (96.8) than it was against teams with winning records (92.4).
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers
10% chance (implied money line: +850, implied odds: 9-1)
The Chiefs finished the regular season with a six-game winning streak, earning the No. 2 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye in the playoffs. Give most of the credit to the defense. A liability for most of the season, Kansas City stood tall in December, holding opponents to six points per game fewer than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play. The Chiefs had allowed between two and three points per game more than expected in the three months before that.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New Orleans Saints
7% chance (implied money line: +1450, implied odds: 14-1)
This pairing would of the No. 2 seed in the AFC and the No. 3 seed in the NFC would offer a marquee quarterback battle.
Patrick Mahomes, the 2018 MVP in just his second season, regressed under center this year for the Chiefs but he was still the second-best passer of 2019 per ESPN and the sixth-best passer of the season among 38 qualified quarterbacks according to Pro Football Focus. His potential opposite in this game, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, led the league in completion rate (76%) and had the second-highest passer rating (116.3). Plus, Brees is the third-most valuable passer of 2019 per ESPN. Pro Football Focus was equally impressed, ranking Brees fourth overall.
Here are the other potential Super Bowl matchups, listed in order of likelihood from most to least.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers
5% chance (implied money line: +1750, implied odds: 18-1)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Philadelphia Eagles
4% chance (implied money line: +2550, implied odds: 26-1)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Seattle Seahawks
3% chance (implied money line: +2800, implied odds: 28-1)
New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers
3% chance (implied money line: +3600, implied odds: 36-1)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings
3% chance (implied money line: +3700, implied odds: 37-1)
New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints
2% chance (implied money line: +5700, implied odds: 57-1)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
2% chance (implied money line: +5800, implied odds: 58-1)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks
2% chance (implied money line: +6300, implied odds: 63-1)
New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers
1% chance (implied money line: +6950, implied odds: 70-1)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings
1% chance (implied money line: +8350, implied odds: 84-1)
Tennessee Titans vs. San Francisco 49ers
1% chance (implied money line: +9400, implied odds: 94-1)
Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ers
1% chance (implied money line: +10650, implied odds: 107-1)
Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers
1% chance (implied money line: +11500, implied odds: 115-1)
Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints
1% chance (implied money line: +14750, implied odds: 148-1)
Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints
1% chance (implied money line: +16750, implied odds: 168-1)
Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers
1% chance (implied money line: +18050, implied odds: 180-1)
Houston Texans vs. New Orleans Saints
1% chance (implied money line: +18050, implied odds: 181-1)
Buffalo Bills vs. Green Bay Packers
<1% chance (implied money line: +20500, implied odds: 205-1)
Houston Texans vs. Green Bay Packers
<1% chance (implied money line: +22050, implied odds: 221-1)
New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles
<1% chance (implied money line: +22250, implied odds: 223-1)
New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks
<1% chance (implied money line: +24100, implied odds: 241-1)
New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings
<1% chance (implied money line: +32000, implied odds: 320-1)
Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles
<1% chance (implied money line: +57250, implied odds: 573-1)
Tennessee Titans vs. Seattle Seahawks
<1% chance (implied money line: +62000, implied odds: 620-1)
Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles
<1% chance (implied money line: +64950, implied odds: 650-1)
Houston Texans vs. Philadelphia Eagles
<1% chance (implied money line: +69950, implied odds: 700-1)
Buffalo Bills vs. Seattle Seahawks
<1% chance (implied money line: +70350, implied odds: 704-1)
Houston Texans vs. Seattle Seahawks
<1% chance (implied money line: +75750, implied odds: 758-1)
Tennessee Titans vs. Minnesota Vikings
<1% chance (implied money line: +82350, implied odds: 823-1)
Buffalo Bills vs. Minnesota Vikings
<1% chance (implied money line: +93400, implied odds: 934-1)
Houston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings
<1% chance (implied money line: +100600, implied odds: 1,006-1)