Analysis: Experts have panned the Seahawks’ last five drafts. Are they right?

If this were a normal draft for the Seahawks, it would also be portrayed as a pretty critical one from a perception standpoint.

But, because the Seahawks have just three picks, not only are expectations tempered for who Seattle will get, but also the pressure might be off to make sure it’s a good one — grades likely won’t be too harsh for a draft class that starts at No. 56 overall. 

And in some ways, Seattle already has had its draft in trading its first- and third-round choices to the Jets for safety Jamal Adams, a fifth-rounder to the Raiders for guard Gabe Jackson, and a seventh-rounder to the Bengals for defensive end Carlos Dunlap. Seattle also traded a sixth-rounder during the draft last year to get receiver/tight end Stephen Sullivan in the seventh round.

Those moves left Seattle with only picks 56, 129 and 250 out of the 259 that will be made when the draft begins Thursday night, the fewest selections since the 2009 Jets, who also had three (including a first-rounder in Mark Sanchez).

Some analysts have noted, though, that if the Seahawks had hit on a few more picks recently, they wouldn’t have had to make the trades they did. 

Seattle, for instance, drafted three potential safeties-of-the-future in 2017. But none may be on the roster four years later, which played a role in the Seahawks instead spending their next two first-round choices on Adams.

And in the run-up to the draft this year, analysts have not been kind to Seattle’s recent draft efforts.

Lindy’s predraft magazine gave the Seahawks a D-plus for their past five drafts, better than only the Raiders and Cardinals (each D’s), writing “Seattle has built a reputation as a good late-round talent collector, but the early rounds have been less fruitful.’’

Pro Football Focus was similarly critical, writing: “Seattle is in the running for the worst drafting team in the league over the past four years — the only saving graces are DK Metcalf, Chris Carson and Shaquill Griffin. The death knell is that some of their picks have been simply unplayable. They desperately need to at least hit some singles and doubles this year because there are too many holes on the roster to have legit Super Bowl hopes — even with Russell Wilson.’’

Some falloff was inevitable after the drafts of the early years of the Pete Carroll/John Schneider era, some of which will be remembered as among the best in NFL history. 

And that Seattle continues to win can’t be ignored when assessing the team’s overall roster-building efforts.

Also worth noting is that even teams that seem to know it all can fall prey quickly to the vagaries and unpredictability of the draft. The Steelers had maybe the greatest draft in NFL history in 1974, selecting four Hall of Famers, then didn’t draft another player who made an All-Pro team for 13 years.

And the Patriots haven’t drafted a player who has made the Pro Bowl since 2013 other than punter Jake Bailey.

But, as the Seahawks prepare for another draft, it’s worth revisiting the past five years to see how they got here.

2016 draft

31, OL Germain Ifedi, Texas A&M

49, DT Jarran Reed, Alabama

90, RB C.J. Prosise, Notre Dame

94, TE Nick Vannett, Ohio State

97, OL Rees Odhiambo, Boise State

147, DL Quinton Jefferson, Maryland

171, RB Alex Collins, Arkansas

215, C Joey Hunt, Texas Christian

243, WR Kenny Lawler, California

247, RB Zac Brooks, Clemson

Comment: The only player left from this group is Collins, though he was gone for more than three years before returning. Seattle, as has been its custom in the Schneider era, moved down from 26 to 31 on draft night, also getting the pick used to take Vannett. Of the picks taken in between, only one is a player the Seahawks might have wished they’d gotten, DL Kenny Clark taken 27th by Green Bay. Two others taken in between are not currently on rosters (linemen Josh Garnett and Robert Nkemdiche), showing how unpredictable the draft can be. And for what it’s worth, Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value ratings rate Reed 28th and Ifedi 30th for the value they gave their drafting team. 

2017 draft

35, DL Malik McDowell, Michigan State

58, OL Ethan Pocic, Louisiana State

90, CB Shaquill Griffin, Central Florida

95, DB Lano Hill, Michigan

102, DL Nazair Jones, North Carolina

106, WR Amara Darboh, Michigan

111, S Tedric Thompson, Colorado

187, DB Mike Tyson, Cincinnati

210, OL Justin Senior, Mississippi State  

226, WR David Moore, East Central Oklahoma

249, RB Chris Carson, Oklahoma State

Comment: The pick of McDowell and what happened after was obviously a huge blow for Seattle and changed a few things going forward. It’s worth remembering Seattle made four trades to move down from 26 to 35, using the selections they got along the way to draft Hill, Thompson, Tyson and Carson. Of the 11 drafted players, only Carson and Pocic might be on the roster when this season begins. And yes, if you want to play the “they should have drafted this guy instead of making the moves they did’’ game, there is one really hard-to-ignore name — edge rusher T.J. Watt, who went 30th to Pittsburgh. Seattle also could have gone a long way toward solving its safety issues by taking local product Budda Baker, who went 36th to Arizona, a pick after Seattle selected McDowell.

2018 draft 

27, RB Rashaad Penny, San Diego State

79, DE Rasheem Green, USC

120, TE Will Dissly, Washington

141, LB Shaquem Griffin, Central Florida 

146, DB Tre Flowers, Oklahoma State

149, P Michael Dickson, Texas

168, OL Jamarco Jones, Ohio State 

186, Edge/LB Jacob Martin, Temple 

220, QB Alex McGough, Florida International

Comment: After missing the playoffs, Seattle had its highest pick of the Wilson era at 18. But true to form, Seattle traded down, moving from 18 to 27 to get the picks that turned into Green, Martin and McGough. That move might be viewed a lot more favorably had Seattle used the 27th pick to take Nick Chubb, who went to Cleveland at 35. Seattle went with Penny, whose durability was a big reason the Seahawks liked him so much but has instead been riddled with injuries. Others who went in between where Seattle could have drafted at 18 and where it did include center Frank Ragnow (20), receivers D.J. Moore and Calvin Ridley (24th and 26th) and cornerback Jaire Alexander by Green Bay with the pick it got from Seattle. 

2019 draft

29, DE L.J. Collier, TCU

47, S Marquise Blair, Utah

64, WR DK Metcalf, Mississippi State

88, LB Cody Barton, Utah 

120, WR Gary Jennings, West Virginia

124, OL Phil Haynes, Wake Forest

132, DB Ugo Amadi, Oregon

142, LB Ben Burr-Kirven, Washington

204, RB Travis Homer, Miami

209, DT Demarcus Christmas, Florida State

236. WR John Ursua, Hawaii

Comment: The Seahawks entered the draft with a league-low four picks and turned it into 11. Their wheeling and dealing began with the Frank Clark trade, which got them a first-round choice that turned into Collier as well as a third-rounder used to move up to get Barton. Seattle also dealt its own first-round pick to get three others, in the process acquiring the two that were then used to move up to get Metcalf, who is obviously the jewel of this class. He has the fourth highest approximate value of any player taken other than quarterback Kyler Murray, wide receiver A.J. Brown and linebacker Devin White. Seattle could have stayed at 21 and taken, say, defensive end Montez Sweat who went at 26. But then they probably wouldn’t have Blair, Amadi or Metcalf.

2020 draft 

27, LB Jordyn Brooks, Texas Tech

48, DE Darrell Taylor, Tennessee

69, OL Damien Lewis, LSU

133, TE Colby Parkinson, Stanford

144, RB DeeJay Dallas, Miami

148, DE Alton Robinson, Syracuse

214, WR Freddie Swain, Florida 

251, WR/TE Stephen Sullivan, LSU

Comment: For the first time since 2011, the Seahawks kept their original first-round pick to draft Brooks. It’s obviously way too early to judge this draft (and worth remembering that Lewis and Robinson were acquired with a pick from the Clark trade the year before that Seattle used to trade down). The keys to the long-term perception will be if Brooks can build on last season to become a true, every-down impact linebacker and if Taylor can get healthy and become a productive edge player. With Lewis showing he can be a starter, if Brooks and Taylor fully pan out and one more of the players taken in the fourth rounds or lower become regular productive players, then the legacy of this draft could be much more positive than the early returns.