The emotional swings were extreme.

“From as low as you can get,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said, “to about as high as you can get.”

Then the swings from Julio Rodriguez and Eugenio Suarez in the bottom of the ninth inning Sunday saved the Mariners from their most devastating defeat and delivered their most exhilarating victory of this breakthrough season.

The Atlanta Braves, the reigning World Series champions and a favorite to repeat this fall, erased a five-run deficit with three mammoth home runs in the final two innings to take the lead off a Seattle bullpen that has been bulletproof for most of the year. Rodriguez and Suarez then homered off Atlanta closer Kenley Jansen in the bottom of the ninth to give the Mariners an 8-7 win and push Seattle closer to its first postseason berth since 2001.

“What a great moment for our ballclub,” Servais said. “ … I’ve really had a special feeling about this team from the get-go.”

The Mariners (79-61), tied with Tampa Bay for the top spot in the American League wild-card race, start a two-game series against the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night at T-Mobile Park after Monday’s off day. Let’s dig into some numbers to explain where the Mariners are and where they might be headed:


With 22 regular-season games left, the Mariners have a 99.8% chance to make the playoffs and a 3.8% chance to win the World Series, per FanGraphs. The Baseball Reference algorithm gives Seattle a 99.5% chance to make the postseason and 5.1% chance to win the World Series.



Rodriguez’s home run with one out in the ninth was measured at 117.2 mph off the bat, the hardest hit of his career and the hardest for any Mariners hitter during the Statcast era (since 2015). It registered as the eighth-hardest in MLB this season.

It was also Rodriguez’s second home run of the game, making it the first multi home-run game of his career.

“You know what you’ve got, and you trust yourself, and you know what you can do,” Rodriguez said, explaining his approach in the game’s biggest moments. “Just let everything happen, and go out there and compete. And I feel like that’s why I’m able to manage the emotions, because I know what I’ve got, and I know I’ve put the work in and everything I’ve been through.”


Rodriguez’s 5.4 wins above replacement (WAR) from Baseball Reference ranks 10th among all MLB position players. He has the No. 1 WAR among all rookies. (Atlanta center fielder Michael Harris II is second among rookies at 4.5.)


With the massive contract extension he signed in late August, Rodriguez could be a Mariner through the 2039 season (if all player and club options are exercised).

“He’s been the same guy the entire year,” said veteran left-hander Marco Gonzales, who this summer declared Julio the best player he’s ever seen. “You know, with the contract and with the fame that’s come with it, I’ve been really, really proud of the way he’s handled all of it. Beyond what he’s doing on the field, it’s impressive.”



In 10 September games, Rodriguez is hitting .400 with a 1.228 OPS, with four home runs and two doubles.


Suarez has hit two walkoff home runs for the Mariners this season. The first came July 8 in the 11th inning against Toronto. Suarez has 30 home runs this season, most on the club, and his 14 home runs since Aug. 1 are the most in the majors.

“Geno’s just, he’s as flatline a player as I’ve ever been around,” Servais said. “He just doesn’t get too high, doesn’t get too low. He just plays baseball.”


The Mariners have hit 58 home runs in 37 games since Aug. 1, the most in the American League since then.


On June 19, the Mariners were shut out at home in a 4-0 loss to the Angels, dropping to a season-low 10 games under .500. Since then, the Mariners are 50-22 — with a .694 winning percentage that ranks second in MLB over that span. Only the Dodgers (55-18, .753) have won more often since. Atlanta (48-24, .667) and Houston (49-25, .662) rank third and fourth on that list.


Over the past 18 games, Mariners starting pitchers have struck out 100 in 106 2/3 innings since Aug. 24, posting a 10-2 record with a 1.79 ERA and allowing only 10 walks since then. Marco Gonzales struck out five and didn’t allow a walk in six innings Sunday against Atlanta.


T-Mobile Park was packed all weekend, with an announced attendance of 132,324 for the three-game series against the Braves. Sunday marked the team’s fifth sellout of the season (45,245).