Will they or won’t they?
After finishing two games out of the postseason in a surprise push last season, the Mariners open the 2022 season (a day late) on Friday with playoff hopes and dreams front and center.
“Our goal is to win the World Series,” Mitch Haniger told Ryan Divish. “That should always be the highest goal. … Obviously, we have to make the playoffs in order to do that.”
While postseason anticipation is palpable throughout Seattle, the rest of the baseball world might still need some convincing.
Most pundits believe that the Astros will continue their reign atop the AL West and that the Mariners aren’t a shoo-in for one of the three AL wild-card spots.
The good news: Top prospect Julio Rodriguez has his fair share of believers when it comes to his AL Rookie of the Year chances.
Here’s how national media members see the Mariners’ playoff chances.
Related Mariners season preview 2022
ESPN: 6 of 38 pick Mariners to make playoffs
Predictions: One vote for Seattle to win AL West and five votes to secure an AL wild card.
Awards: Two votes for Julio Rodriguez to win AL Rookie of the Year.
Jesse Rogers: The Mariners are loaded and can actually still play the underdog card even though they became a known quantity last year. The addition of Robbie Ray might be the single most important addition for any team. He fills such a big void at the top of the rotation, while Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez bring the kind of veteran bats any team needs when it wants to make a leap in the standings. While they were adding, the Astros lost their star shortstop and pitching coach. Don’t underestimate the latter change as Brent Strom was instrumental in helping along Houston’s young pitchers. It’ll be a tight race, but Seattle will prevail.
Sports Illustrated
Awards: Three of seven pundits vote for Rodriguez to win AL Rookie of the Year.
Matt Martell: You ready for the J-Rod show? Rodríguez is going to be a superstar. He’s a five-tool player with an 80-grade personality. The Mariners are going to be a playoff team in large part because of J-Rod. Bobby Witt Jr. is going to make this a compelling race, but in the end, J-Rod’s star will shine so bright that none of us will be able to look away.
The Ringer: 1 of 4 pick Mariners to make playoffs
Predictions: One vote for Mariners to secure an AL wild card.
Awards: One vote for Rodriguez to win AL Rookie of the Year.
Zach Kram: It’s hard to pick against a member of the Witt-Torkelson-Rodríguez top prospect trio. Give me the best pure hitter of the bunch, as Rodríguez slashed .347/.441/.560 across High-A and Double-A last season, then so impressively crushed spring training pitching (.424/.487/.818) that he forced his way onto the Mariners’ Opening Day roster.
Five Thirty Eight: Mariners have 32% chance to make playoffs
Predictions: Projections give Mariners 32% chance to make postseason, 14% to win AL West and 1% to win World Series.
Projected wins: 80 wins via composite projections.
Neil Paine: It’s true, but perhaps also trite, to say that teams like the 2021 Mariners — which live on high-wire comebacks and win more than the stats say they “should” — usually fall back to earth the following season. Seattle’s attempt to build off that surprising success was always going to encounter a lot of gravity. But you also have to credit the Mariners for pushing through. … Will that be enough to offset the inevitable regression waiting for a club that exceeded its Pythagorean record by 14 wins last season, by far the most of any team in baseball? The composite of forecasts above says Seattle will probably look more like a .500 team than a serious playoff contender. (Remember, even in an expanded 12-team postseason field, it will likely take 86 or 87 wins to make the playoffs on average — and last year’s AL would have required even more than that.) But the Mariners have plenty of experience exceeding those kinds of expectations, so we’ll see if they can do it again.
CBS Sports: 2 of 5 pick Mariners to make playoffs
Predictions: Two votes for Mariners to secure an AL wild card.
The Athletic’s Keith Law: Mariners miss playoffs with 85 wins.
Prediction: Mariners finish second in AL West at 85-77.
Law: The Mariners did everything they could to get better, signing Robbie Ray, trading for Jesse Winker and now adding future star Julio Rodríguez to the Opening Day roster, marking three of the top 10 overall prospects in baseball who will make their major-league debuts on Opening Day (Julio, Witt and Torkelson). They were also outscored by 51 runs last year, and their total of 90 wins was the product of some good fortune that isn’t likely to recur. I do think they’ll get internal improvement from Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert, and they might lead the league in fun differential, but I’d put their playoff odds a bit under 25 percent.
Yahoo Sports: 4 of 5 pick Mariners to make playoffs
Predictions: One vote for Seattle to win AL West and three votes to secure an AL wild card.
Awards: One vote for Rodriguez to win AL Rookie of the Year. Two votes for Jarred Kelenic as AL breakout hitter.
Fox Sports: 2 of 4 pick Mariners to make playoffs
Predictions: Two votes for Mariners to secure an AL wild card.
Awards: Three votes for Rodriguez to win AL Rookie of the Year.
Jake Mintz: (Rodriguez) is a potentially generational hitter with incredible power, superb bat-to-ball ability and the intelligence to make adjustments at the big-league level. There are a ton of other outstanding candidates in the American League that I’d take over anyone in the NL — Bobby Witt Jr. in KC, Spencer Torkelson in Detroit, Adley Rutschman in Baltimore and Jeremy Peña in Houston come to mind — but Julio is a game-changing talent with a smile bigger than the Space Needle. He’ll be a household name by August.
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