The 2016 season is coming down to the wire for the Mariners, who still have a chance to make the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

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The Mariners are clinging to hope in the American League wild-card race, sitting two-games back from the second playoff slot with just six games remaining in the regular season Tuesday morning.

With their 4-3 victory Monday over the Astros, the M’s improved to 83-73 and increased their wild-card lead over Houston to 1.5 games. The Astros are now 3.5 games back in the wild-card race.

But two teams still stand in Seattle’s way: The Detroit Tigers are tied at 2.0 games back, and the Baltimore Orioles are holding their wild-card position 1.0 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays.

So, how likely are the M’s to make it to the postseason?

Before Tuesday’s games across the MLB, FiveThirtyEight gave the Mariners a 22 percent chance to make the playoffs. That’s up from 12 percent on Monday after the M’s left Minnesota winning two games out of three.

Felix Hernandez takes the mound Tuesday in Houston, where the M’s and Astros will battle at 5:10 p.m. Pacific time. FiveThirtyEight favors the Astros in Tuesday’s matchup and gives Seattle a 50-50 chance Wednesday before the M’s return home for a final, four-game series in which they’re favored over Oakland.

Here’s how the rest of Seattle’s schedule looks, with teams contending for the A.L. playoffs in bold:

  • 2 games at Astros (82-75 record, 3.5 games back of wild-card slot)
  • 4 games vs. Oakland Athletics (66-85)


Remaining games for the Orioles:

  • 3 games at Blue Jays (86-70, in first wild-card slot)
  • 3 games at Yankees (80-76, 5.0 back of wild-card)


Remaining games for the Tigers:

  • 3 games vs. Indians (91-65, 1st in AL Central)
  • 3 games at Atlanta Braves (63-92)


Remaining games for the Astros:

  • 2 games vs. Mariners (83-73, 2.0 back of wild-card)
  • 3 games at Angels (70-87)


Remaining games for the Blue Jays:

  • 3 games vs. Orioles (85-71, in second wild-card slot)
  • 3 games at Red Sox (92-64, 1st in AL East)