Believe. That’s the motto the Mariners have clung to even as their improbable September run seemed to crash on Sept. 15. After falling to the Red Sox for the second time in three games in what felt like a must-win series, the Mariners fell four games behind the Red Sox and Blue Jays for the second wild-card spot with 16 games remaining.

Seattle Times columnist Larry Stone tweeted a sobering reminder of the Mariners’ chances that afternoon, writing that barring “something like a 14-2 finish,” the season was all but over.

Well, here we are. Since that day, the Mariners have rattled off 10 wins in 12 tries. They sit 0.5 games behind the Red Sox for the second wild-card spot with just four games to play.

Do you believe yet?

This run is oddly reminiscent of the magical “Refuse to Lose” Mariners run of 1995, writes Stone. But as they have been all year, the odds are still stacked against this year’s miracle M’s.

Speaking of odds, FiveThirtyEight.com gives Seattle a 22% chance of making the playoffs, while ESPN pins their chances at 15.3%.

The Mariners are also now the closest they’ve been to a playoff spot with five games or fewer left in the season since they last made the playoffs in 2001, according to ESPN Stats & Info. And with 2 more wins, they could reach the 90-win mark for the first time since 2003.

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So what has to happen for the M’s to actually break the postseason drought? The aforementioned Larry Stone prediction is still likely true. The M’s might need to still win out, and even then, they need help.

Here’s a look at the current wild-card standings and the remaining games for the teams to pay attention to the rest of the way.

Where the Mariners sit in the AL wild-card standings

The Mariners are alive in the chase for a postseason spot with one game remaining. Here’s a look at where things stand entering Sunday.

Source: MLB

Remaining games for the Mariners (0.5 games behind Red Sox):

  • 1 game vs. Oakland A’s (85-73), 3 games vs. Los Angeles Angels (74-83)

Remaining games for the Red Sox (0.5 games ahead of Mariners, 2 games behind Yankees):

  • 2 games at Baltimore Orioles (51-106), 3 games at Washington Nationals (65-93)

Remaining games for the Blue Jays (0.5 games behind Mariners):

  • 2 games vs. Yankees (90-67), 3 games vs. Orioles (51-106)