The Mariners need help.
Even after their wild 6-4 victory over the Los Angeles Angels on Saturday night.
The Mariners have reached 90 wins for just the sixth time in franchise history, but the two teams they’re chasing have 91. So it’ll all come down to Game 162.
Here’s the scenario.
If the Yankees and/or Red Sox lose Sunday, and the Mariners beat the Angels, Seattle will play a tiebreaker game for the wild card. That’s it. Whatever Toronto does has no bearing on the Mariners getting to a play-in game, just the number of teams tied for a wild-card spot.
The best-case scenario for the M’s would be for the Yankees and Red Sox to lose and the Blue Jays to win. This could create a four-way tie in the standings (assuming the Mariners win, too), and Seattle would just have to win one play-in game to reach the wild-card game.
In the case of a three-way tie, whoever has the tiebreaker of the three teams chooses two games at home or one on the road. Choosing two games at home means that team would have to win two to reach the wild-card game. The third team plays the winner of the first game.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan lays out the possible scenarios for a three-way tie here:
The Mariners have a 9% chance to make the playoffs, according to fivethirtyeight.com. But they’ll be playing on the final day of the season for a chance to keep playing. And they’ve been defying the odds all season.
Here’s a look at the remaining schedule for the wild-card contenders:
Remaining game for the Mariners (1 game behind the Red Sox and Yankees, tied with Blue Jays):
- 1 game vs. Los Angeles Angels (76-85)
Remaining game for the Red Sox (1 game ahead of Mariners and Blue Jays for second wild card, tied with Yankees):
- 1 game at Nationals (65-96)
Remaining game for the Blue Jays (tied with Mariners):
- 1 game vs. Orioles (52-109)
Remaining game for the Yankees (tied with Red Sox, 1 game ahead of Mariners and Blue Jays)
- 1 game vs. Rays (100-61)
Sunday is going to be fun.