Of the 2,247 hits throughout Edgar Martinez’s career, 233 of them gave the Mariners the lead. Another 65 tied the game, and five times did Edgar deliver the walk-off blow.

None was more memorable than the line drive down the left field line he hit off Jack McDowell on Oct. 8, 1995. But, thanks mostly to Ken Griffey Jr.’s single the batter prior, ‘The Double’ just misses our list of Edgar’s most clutch hits. We used the metric WPA, or Win Probability Added, to determine the hits that most changed the tide of each game.

The Mariners already had a 68% chance to win that ALDS Game 5 when Martinez stepped to the plate. After Joey Cora scored and Ken Griffey Jr. slid across home plate, it jumped to 100%, a walk-off win. That amounts to a WPA of 0.32 — game-changing but a rung below Edgar’s top 11.

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Here’s a look at the top 11:

1. Aug. 28, 1990 vs. Detroit Tigers

Aug. 28, 1990 vs. Detroit Tigers. (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)
Aug. 28, 1990 vs. Detroit Tigers. (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)

Pitcher: Paul Gibson

Win probability before: 28%

Win probability after: 100%

WPA: 0.72

Pitching with a 3-2 lead with one out in the ninth, Tigers right-hander Paul Gibson balked Harold Reynolds to second base. But it wouldn’t matter, as Martinez put the next pitch into the left-field seats for the second walk-off home run of his young career.

2. Aug. 29, 2000 vs. New York Yankees

Aug. 29, 2000 vs. New York Yankees (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)
Aug. 29, 2000 vs. New York Yankees (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)

Pitcher: Jeff Nelson

Win probability before: 24%

Win probability after: 92%

WPA: 0.68

Nelson and Martinez would team up to win 116 games, but a year prior, the Yankees turned to the right-handed specialist to face the heart of Seattle’s order after Andy Pettite loaded the bases in the bottom of the eighth. The Mariners trailing 3-1, Nelson got Alex Rodriguez swinging. But with two outs, Martinez smacked one of nine career grand slams to give Seattle a 5-3 lead. Kazuhiro Sasaki sent the Yankees down 1-2-3 the next inning.

3. June 17, 1992 vs. Chicago White Sox

June 17, 1992 vs. Chicago White Sox (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)
June 17, 1992 vs. Chicago White Sox (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)

Pitcher: Charlie Hough

Win probability before: 27%

Win probability after: 85%

WPA: 0.58

White Sox starter Charlie Hough had shut out the Mariners for 7 2/3 innings. Omar Vizquez led off the eighth with a double, their third hit of the game, and represented the tying run. Hough sent down the next two batters, but Martinez wouldn’t allow him to escape: A home run down the left-field line gave the Mariners a 2-1 lead.

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4. May 20, 1990 vs. Cleveland Indians

May 20, 1990 vs. Cleveland Indians (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)
May 20, 1990 vs. Cleveland Indians (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)

Pitcher: Jesse Orosco

Win probability before: 43%

Win probability after: 92%

WPA: 0.49

Tied 6-6 with two outs in the 10th, Ken Griffey singled to right field. Edgar Martinez followed with a homer deep into the left-field seats to give the Mariners an 8-6 lead, which Sandy Alomar would make 8-7 before Mike Schooler retired the side in the bottom half.

5. July 19, 2004 vs. Boston Red Sox

July 19, 2004 vs. Boston Red Sox (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)
July 19, 2004 vs. Boston Red Sox (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)

Pitcher: Keith Foulke

Win probability before: 12%

Win probability after: 59%

WPA: 0.46

Edgar’s clutch gene was still there, even in his final season. Pinch-hitting for Hiram Bocachica, down 4-3 in the ninth, Edgar homered 395 feet to center, giving the Mariners back-to-back blasts to force extra innings. Bret Boone’s walk-off grand slam in the 11th gave the Mariners an 8-4 win.

6. July 30, 1998 vs. Cleveland Indians

July 30, 1998 vs. Cleveland Indians (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)
July 30, 1998 vs. Cleveland Indians (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)

Pitcher: Michael Jackson

Win probability before: 12%

Win probability after: 59%

WPA: 0.46

This home run changed the game but it didn’t win it. Down 6-5 in the 12th inning, Martinez took Cleveland reliever Michael Jackson deep to tie the game. The Mariners won five innings later, rallying for four runs in the bottom of the 17th (!) after Manny Ramirez gave Cleveland a three-run lead with a blast in the top half.

7. June 21, 2001 vs. Oakland Athletics

June 21, 2001 vs. Oakland Athletics (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)
June 21, 2001 vs. Oakland Athletics (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)

Pitcher: Jeff Tam

Win probability before: 29%

Win probability after: 72%

WPA: 0.44

After a double steal put Ichiro and Mark McLemore in scoring position, Martinez doubled them both home to turn a 10-9 deficit into an 11-10 lead in the eighth inning.

8. July 3, 1996 vs. Oakland Athletics

July 3, 1996 vs. Oakland Athletics (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)
July 3, 1996 vs. Oakland Athletics (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)

Pitcher: Carlos Reyes

Win probability before: 57%

Win probability after: 100%

WPA: 0.43

Alex Rodriguez set up another Edgar walk-off by beating out a single with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. Martinez then worked a full count and took the sixth pitch the other way to score Rodriguez from first for a walk-off double.

9. June 23, 1990 vs. Texas Rangers

June 23, 1990 vs. Texas Rangers (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)
June 23, 1990 vs. Texas Rangers (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)

Pitcher: Kenny Rogers

Win probability before: 54%

Win probability after: 93%

WPA: 0.39

After Kenny Rogers allowed Ken Griffey to score the tying run on a passed ball in the ninth, he loaded the bases for Edgar Martinez in the 11th. Working another full count, Edgar singled up the middle to score Griffey and Tracy Jones to give Seattle an 8-6 lead.

10. June 21, 1999 vs. Cleveland Indians

June 21, 1999 vs. Cleveland Indians (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)
June 21, 1999 vs. Cleveland Indians (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)

Pitcher: Paul Shuey

Win probability before: 30%

Win probability after: 69%

WPA: 0.39

Not every one of Edgar’s most clutch hits resulted in a win. His two-RBI double in the eighth did put the Mariners ahead 3-2. But the trio of Jeff Fassero, Jose Paniagua and Jose Mesa couldn’t hold on to the lead, walking in the tying run in the eighth and allowing the winning run to score on a wild pitch in the 12th.

11. Aug. 14, 2001 vs. Boston Red Sox

August 14, 2001 vs. Boston Red Sox (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)
August 14, 2001 vs. Boston Red Sox (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)

Pitcher: Rod Beck

Win probability before: 58%

Win probability after: 96%

WPA: 0.38

Tied 3-3 in the 11th, Martinez stepped to the plate with runners in scoring position for the fourth time of the game. After failing in his first three attempts, Martinez rocketed the 0-2 pitch off the light pole in left field to put the Mariners ahead 6-3.

Source: Baseball-Reference Play Index