The American League West, on paper, appears as formidable as it has been in years.
Three of the five teams in the division — the Angels, Astros and Mariners — have realistic postseason aspirations, and a fourth, the Rangers, might be the most intriguing team in the AL.
Questions abound all around the division.
Is this the year Mike Trout and the Angels finally put it all together?
Can the Astros keep their divisional dominance going without star shortstop Carlos Correa?
Can the Mariners’ touted prospects start to deliver on their vast potential?
Will the Rangers’ $561 million free-agent spending spree pay immediate dividends?
Just how far will the rebuilding Athletics fall?
A look at how the AL West could shake out in 2022, listed in predicted order of finish:
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Los Angeles Angels
2021 record: 77-85.
Key additions: RHP Noah Syndergaard, RHP Michael Lorenzen.
Best-case scenario: Shohei Ohtani repeats his mesmerizing MVP season of 2021 … Mike Trout, healthy again, anchors a potent lineup around Ohtani, Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh … the pitching staff does enough to support the offense … and the Angels emerge as the most surprising team in baseball.
Worst-case scenario: The double-time workload becomes too much for Ohtani … Trout, at age 30, starts his decline … Rendon is hurt (again) … Angels pitchers continue to pitch like Angels pitchers … and the Angels finish below .500 for the seventh consecutive season.
Breakout candidate: Patrick Sandoval. The 25-year-old lefty struck out 94 in 87 innings last season, and he might possess the game’s best changeup. Sandoval got batters to swing and miss 51.4% of the time when he threw his changeup, according to Baseball Savant, and batters hit just .139 with a .209 slugging against the pitch. Watch for Sandoval as a dark-horse candidate in the AL Cy Young race.
Prediction: It’s easy to convince yourself the Angles are legit — duh, they have Trout and Ohtani (or is it Ohtani and Trout?). We’re buying the Angels as MLB’s most-improved team and can envision them making a serious run at the AL pennant.
Houston Astros
2021 record: 95-67.
Key additions: RHP Justin Verlander (re-signed after Tommy John surgery), RHP Hector Neris.
Best-case scenario: The Astros don’t miss a beat without Carlos Correa, cruising into the playoffs for the sixth consecutive season and challenging for another World Series title.
Worst-case scenario: Verlander (39), Jose Altuve (32), Michael Brantley (35) and Yuli Gurriel (38) start to look their age, and 24-year-old prospect Jeremy Pena falls flat as Correa’s successor at shortstop.
Breakout candidate: Yordan Alvarez. Sure, sure, you could make the case that Alvarez has already had his breakout — maybe even multiple breakouts with 27 and 33 home runs, respectively, in his first two full seasons. But Alvarez has “Most Feared Slugger in Baseball” upside, and maybe this is the year he realizes it.
Prediction: With Verlander back to his old form this spring, it would be foolish to count out Houston. The Astros have the talent, the depth and the experience to run away with the division for the fifth time in the past six years.
Seattle Mariners
2021 record: 90-72.
Key additions: LHP Robbie Ray, LF/DH Jesse Winker, 3B Eugenio Suarez, 2B Adam Frazier.
Best-case scenario: Jarred Kelenic, 22, and Julio Rodriguez, 21, become the cornerstone pieces the Mariners need them to be in the outfield … Ray proves worth every bit of his $115 million deal … Winker becomes a household name … Suarez finds his 40-homer stroke … Paul Sewald and the rest of the bullpen arms carry over their surprising dominance … and the M’s end baseball’s longest postseason drought.
Worst-case scenario: The run-differential regression comes to fruition … center-field defense proves a major problem … Kelenic and J-Rod both need more development in Tacoma … the bullpen crashes back to Earth … and the drought continues.
Breakout candidate: Logan Gilbert. The lanky right-hander was solid as a rookie last year (4.68 ERA, 128 strikeouts, 28 walks in 119 innings), and he appears poised to take the next step with an improved arsenal. His slider and changeup have been particularly impressive this spring.
Prediction: J-Rod posts a 20-20 rookie season (20 homers, 20 steals), and Winker proves a smart pickup for a much-improved offense as the M’s sneak into the postseason as the third wild-card team.
Texas Rangers
2021 record: 60-102.
Key additions: SS Corey Seager, 2B Marcus Semien, RHP Jon Gray.
Best-case scenario: Seager realizes his MVP-type potential … Semien repeats his 2021 … Adolis Garcia sustains his 2021 first-half breakout … and Gray revives his career after getting away from Colorado’s Coors Field.
Worst-case scenario: Semien regresses to his career averages (.768 OPS) … Seager is hurt (again) … and the struggles continue for the pitching staff (4.80 ERA in 2021).
Breakout candidate: Jack Leiter. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 draft out of Vanderbilt, Leiter is one of the most polished right-handed pitchers coming out of college in recent years. His arrival with the big-league club is more likely in 2023, but Texas figures to have him on the fast track through the minors.
Prediction: In committing major money to Seager and Semien, the Rangers signaled their clear intention to accelerate their rebuild, and they might not be far off from playoff contention. They should be able to score runs, but pitching remains a sticking point. At best, this feels like an 80-win team.
Oakland Athletics
2021 record: 86-76.
Key additions: CF Cristian Pache, C Shea Langeliers, 3B Kevin Smith.
Best-case scenario: The A’s owner, John J. Fisher, decides to sell the team.
Worst-case scenario: The worst-case scenario plays out every five years or so, as the A’s develop a new crop of prospects, they eventually prosper in the big leagues … and then the A’s trade them before they have to pay them big money. Matt Olson (Braves) and Matt Chapman (Blue Jays) are the latest stars shipped out, and they surely won’t be the last.
Breakout candidate: Jed Lowrie. (Kidding.) Lowrie, in his age-38 season, is back for a fourth stint in Oakland, and he’s had a productive career. The A’s did get generally solid reviews with the young talent they got back in trades for Olson, Chapman and RHP Chris Bassitt (Mets), but even those top prospects — Pache and Langeliers — don’t appear to be can’t-miss stars.
Prediction: The A’s will be terrible for a couple of years and then somehow find their way back into the postseason by 2025.
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