Yes, it’s going to cool down, and yes, the National Weather Service of Seattle stoked excitement about snow by mentioning the possibility on Twitter Monday night.

But, sorry to say, it’s not really that likely, according to meteorologist Dana Felton.

“As hard as it is not to get too riled up about it at this point — because (snow) is the magic word — the best chance right now is that the snow levels could be down to 500 feet if precipitation shows up in the morning hours,” he said.

After one of the wettest and the sixth warmest start to January in Seattle in 77 years — with temperatures closer to our April 1 normal high of 56 degrees, it will start to cool down gradually this week, Felton said.

The drop in temperatures from a cooler system coming in from the Pacific Ocean will be gradual: 48 degrees Tuesday, 46 degrees Wednesday and so on until we reach what is expected to be our coolest day, Sunday at 40 degrees, Felton said.

“It will be below our normal high of 48 degrees but it’s not going to be ‘cold,’ ” he said. “People don’t think highs in the lower 40s are cold. They think ‘it’s January.’ “


By the way, cooler temperatures in January don’t tell us anything about the rest of the winter, he said, though below-normal temperatures is a La Nina trait and usually kicks in about now.

The average temperature in January for 2018 to 2020 was 45 degrees, and that didn’t predict anything about the rest of winter, Felton said. He also looked in vain for a correlation between wet starts to the year and subsequent rainfall.

Even if we get some light rain on Thursday or Sunday, when precipitation is expected to roll in, there’s not likely to be much, he said.

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