Traffic Lab is a Seattle Times project that digs into the region’s transportation issues to explore the policies and politics that determine how we get around and how billions of dollars in public money are spent.

When the Washington State Department of Transportation suddenly delayed its once-in-a-generation project to resurface the bumpy I-5 Ship Canal Bridge until 2026, officials blamed an unexpected $16 million cost increase.

It turns out, though, that WSDOT was facing additional pressures to cancel the planned roadwork that was to begin March 1, closing two freeway lanes at a time.

Behind the scenes, the Downtown Seattle Association, the city of Seattle and King County Metro Transit have clamored since September for WSDOT to find an extra $39.25 million for more bus service, traffic signals and public communication, to try to relieve congestion while bridge lanes close.

“I think most people in this region didn’t know this (roadwork) was coming,” said DSA President and CEO Jon Scholes, who applauded the decision to wait.

Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell co-signed a letter to key lawmakers seeking the traffic-impact money, his staff said, but it wasn’t sent because new state transportation Secretary Julie Meredith abruptly halted this season’s I-5 work, just five weeks before the scheduled start.

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In that letter, local officials said the closure of two lanes “threatens to disrupt our region’s economic recovery, mobility, and quality of life. This capacity reduction equates to shifting 84,000 vehicles a day — the same total volume carried by the Alaskan Way Viaduct — onto alternative routes and modes over the next three years.”

Meredith says her decision was based on construction costs and risks, not the local agencies’ worry about gridlock.

Still, the $39 million request isn’t going away, meaning the scramble for dollars should only get more intense this spring, when WSDOT and the Legislature recalibrate the project, during an overall state budget squeeze.

A rough road

Each year of waiting further ages the deck, which was last resurfaced in 1985. Crews have made about 200 urgent pothole repairs since 2019. Falling bits closed two parks below. Though WSDOT deemed the 1962-vintage span safe for drivers, chronic runoff can eventually corrode steel beams and rebar, or make future repairs more difficult. Since raising gas taxes in 2015-16, the state has repaved other miles of I-5, while the crucial bridge project slipped to the mid-2020s.

WSDOT announced Jan. 27 that it would postpone the $203 million job until next year. Contractors had been poised to work through November northbound, take a winter break, then shift to southbound. The first phase though June 2025 was trending at $86 million, instead of $70 million as expected, project records show.

The was Meredith’s first big judgment call since succeeding Roger Millar last month.

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“It was a little surprising to me that they put the pause on this,” said Rep. Andrew Barkis of Olympia, ranking Republican on the House Transportation Committee. He worries another year of delay will make fixing I-5 more expensive.

In a follow-up interview, Meredith said not only is the job at least $15 million over budget, but every dollar in the Highway Preservation Program is spent.

She said WSDOT met 100 times over two years with local groups about what she called a challenging period for travelers. The agency’s January announcement emphasized the delay would allow greater outreach.

As of now, Meredith isn’t on board with adding $39.25 million more for traffic aid, when limited preservation funds could become even tighter in 2025-27. Regarding a likely debate in Olympia this spring, Meredith said: “I expect the Legislature to listen to anybody who comes down.”

Senate Transportation Committee Chair Marko Liias, D-Edmonds, said Meredith made her decision a few days before Jan. 27, and he chose not to second-guess her right out of the gate.

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“People are doing the best they can. This exemplified Julie as new secretary kicking the tires, and trying to do things in the best way possible,” he said.

The $16 million construction increase would seem relatively small, at barely one-thousandth of Washington state’s $15 billion 2025-27 transportation spending.

But specific preservation money — about $500 million per year to restore worn-out pavement and paint, repair bridges and maintain tunnels — provides only half what’s needed to keep Washington’s highways in good condition.

Barkis described the I-5 timeline as unusual. The Legislature has found money before to salvage highway projects, he said, but this time, WSDOT didn’t send an emergency request letter seeking $15 million.

After the fresh look by Meredith in January, there wasn’t time to send the Legislature a supplemental budget request, normally reviewed around April 1, and commence bridge work on time, said Kris Abrudan, WSDOT strategy and policy director.

Delays in fixing worn I-5 surfaces are emblematic of “system collapse” that’s coming across Washington state, which spends roughly $4 building new highways for every $1 keeping existing roads in shape, said Billy Hetherington, president of the Washington State Good Roads & Transportation Association.

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“It’s been the political will of the Legislature to make sure their projects have been taken care of,” he said, “and that has been to the detriment of preservation.”

“As efficiently as possible”

As they work to reschedule I-5 rehab, the state will avoid conflicts with six FIFA World Cup tournament matches in Seattle, from June 15 to July 6, 2026. Does that mean bridge fixes can’t begin until August of next year?

The answer depends on upcoming talks with contractor Atkinson Construction, said Brian Nielsen, WSDOT regional administrator.

According to Atkinson’s bid proposal last year, crews can finish the first two concrete lanes in a mere 100 days, including a month’s cushion for minor hiccups. If WSDOT believes such timelines, it seems possible to start in early 2026 with ample time to restore traffic by World Cup.

In a longshot scenario, Nielsen said, contractors might accomplish a two-lane stage in late 2025, if the Legislature forwards quick money, and if weather permits.

Atkinson executives in Renton declined an interview request, while the firm pledged to work “as efficiently as possible” under WSDOT’s direction. Atkinson’s $203 million bid for the I-5 job “was $35 million less than the next closest bidder, confirming that we bring the best value to this project,” a publicist said.

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All three bidders far exceeded WSDOT’s engineering estimate of $138 million, a clue that bidders expected inflation or high risk. The contract includes drainage, expansion joints and asphalt ramp paving.

The Ship Canal Bridge resurfacing budget contained a $9 million contingency, which is normally enough, but “there is a significant risk that it is not sufficient for this project,” Abrudan said.

That risk is based on unknown conditions below deck. Crews will rebuild the top 1½ inches, but if loose concrete appears below, workers will punch out all 6½ inches, laced in rebar.

“It is highly variable and you really can’t fully determine the amount of deck that you need to repair until you remove the overlay,” Meredith said.

WSDOT didn’t have wiggle room, Abrudan said, because the 2023-25 preservation fund contains only $20 million in emergency money, but the state wound up doing $57 million in unplanned work.

“It’s going to be painful and annoying”

WSDOT will shed some of its $203 million contract obligation by deferring adjacent lane improvements on southbound I-5 from Roanoke to Mercer streets until some future contract.

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On the other hand, the state will continue to face requests for $39.25 million in traffic-relief money.

Scholes harked back to three weeks in January 2019, when WSDOT closed Highway 99 while rerouting lanes from the now-demolished Alaskan Way Viaduct into the new downtown bypass tunnel.

“There was a lot of communication in advance with the public, about what was going to take place, and (this time) we just didn’t see that,” Scholes said.

Meredith distinguished between new highway megaprojects, when WSDOT contributes to temporary lanes or transit, and preservation, when it doesn’t. She inherited the policy from Millar, who didn’t reply to an interview request.

She said WSDOT previously aided I-5 traffic by delaying lane resurfacing a year, so Sound Transit could open its Lynnwood-Northgate extension in August 2024. The I-5 express lanes will point the same direction as the lane closures, she said, and Aurora Avenue bus lanes might extend to 24/7 use, over longer distances.

By waiting another year, the state can benefit from Sound Transit’s Eastside 2 Line, whose I-90 connection to International District/Chinatown Station should open next winter.

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Those trains will turn toward Lynnwood and share tracks with Seattle’s 1 Line north of downtown — so a train can show up every five minutes, and the rail corridor parallel to I-5 could haul up to 7,200 riders per hour in each direction.

Sound Transit’s governing board of local elected officials has worried about train crowding whenever I-5 shrinks. Even worse, light rail travelers have been afflicted by frequent power outages that slow or block trains. CEO Goran Sparrman has promised electric-system upgrades this year.

“We expressed concerns about the timing. We didn’t officially ask (WSDOT) to wait; we expressed concerns about how this was going to work,” Sparrman said.

Geoff Patrick, communications director for Community Transit in Snohomish County, said the state briefed transit staff about I-5 impacts as recently as mid-January, a sign WSDOT made an abrupt and independent decision.

“We are pleasantly surprised by this news,” he said, because Community Transit — which rearranged express and local routes in 2024 to fit the 1 Line — wants full light rail capacity established first.

“We have to do this work,” said Sen. Liias, whose district north of Seattle includes thousands of I-5 commuters. “The fact it’s not being done in March means we’ll do it in the future. I think it’s going to be painful and annoying, whenever it happens.”