Dino Rossi leads in the new poll 49 percent to Kim Schrier's 39 percent — possibly due to a surge in support for new Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
A new poll in Washington’s 8th Congressional District finds Republican Dino Rossi with a 10-point lead over Democratic rival Kim Schrier following the contentious confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court.
The poll of 400 voters by Elway Research, for Seattle news site Crosscut, found Rossi with 49 percent support to Schrier’s 39 percent. It was conducted Oct. 4 to Oct. 9 and has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
Pollster Stuart Elway told Crosscut that Rossi appears to have benefited from a surge in support from voters polled just as the Kavanaugh hearings were wrapping up. The Senate hearings appear to have “erased” the Democratic advantage in the district, Elway told Crosscut.
“Now it looks like what you would have expected this district to look like before everyone was talking about a blue wave,” he said.
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The Crosscut/Elway Poll found Rossi receiving a spike in support, particularly among women, after Kavanaugh’s confirmation Saturday, compared with those surveyed before his confirmation. The poll found him with a 14 percentage point lead among women and 7 points among men.
Those poll results differ from a New York Times poll two weeks ago, which found the race essentially tied, with Schrier at 46 percent to Rossi’s 45 percent. A poll by the AARP released Monday found Schrier with an 8-point lead among voters over the age of 50, though that survey of 600 voters also was conducted last month.
The 8th District race this year is considered one of two dozen or so that will help decide control of the U.S. House. The district has never sent a Democrat to Congress, and grew more conservative when boundaries were redrawn after the 2010 Census. The 8th now runs from east King and Pierce counties to Kittitas and Chelan counties.
But Democrats have sensed a possible opening in the 2018 midterms with the pending retirement of incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Auburn. Several national political oddsmakers have rated the race as a “tossup” or even “leans Democratic.”
Schrier spokeswoman Katie Rodihan said the campaign is not panicking about the new poll.
“Two public polls released today show wildly different results. What we know for certain is that voters want a representative who will fight for affordable health care, defend a woman’s right to choose, and put a check on the Trump administration — that candidate is Kim Schrier,” she said in an email.
The Rossi campaign on Wednesday reacted as it has to other polls, saying it won’t change his view that the race will be close.
“We’ve been campaigning like we’re one vote behind for a year now, and we’re going to push hard through the next 27 days. We are certainly gratified that voters remember that Dino is a fiscal conservative with a social conscience,” said Rossi’s campaign manager, Andrew Bell, in an email.