In a survey of registered voters in the district, incumbent McMorris Rodgers had a 6-percentage-point lead over Brown, with 44 percent supporting the Republican incumbent and 38 percent favoring the Democratic challenger.
SPOKANE — Split by voters’ views of President Donald Trump and gender, Eastern Washington’s electorate is highly polarized and possibly headed for the closest race in the 5th Congressional District in years.
The race between Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers and former WSU Spokane Chancellor Lisa Brown is shaping up to be a bruising race, said H. Stuart Elway of Elway Research Inc.
In a recent survey of 403 registered voters in the district, incumbent McMorris Rodgers had a 6-percentage-point lead over Brown, with 44 percent saying they plan to vote for the Republican incumbent and 38 percent saying they plan to vote for the Democratic challenger. An additional 3 percent said they plan to vote for someone else, and 16 percent are undecided.
The overall poll has a margin of error of 5 percentage points, so the race is within the margin and McMorris Rodgers’ lead is “not statistically significant,” Elway said. Being under 50 percent is a worry for any incumbent.
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The poll was conducted between April 4 and 7 for The Spokesman-Review, KHQ-TV, the Walla Walla Union-Bulletin, Spokane Public Radio and the Lewiston Tribune. Like any survey, it doesn’t predict the outcome of the 2018 election but offers a snapshot of voters’ views at the time it was conducted.
It’s no surprise that Brown has a huge lead among voters who told pollsters they are Democrats, and McMorris Rodgers among self-identified Republicans.
Alice Beattie, who said she’s been voting Democrat since the 1980s, said she believed Brown would bring a fresh perspective to the district.
“She’s a very well-educated person,” Beattie, 80, said of Brown. “We need someone who has a balanced, full view of what has happened and what’s going to happen.”
Spokane Valley resident Yvonne Helgeson, 70, identified herself as “a conservative” and said she’s always voted for McMorris Rodgers. She cited the congresswoman’s work for veterans and pushing legislation that would promote health-care recruitment in rural areas as reasons for her support.
“She knows the people really well,” Helgeson said. “She tries to put the issues of Eastern Washington at the forefront.”
Among those who said they are independents. McMorris Rodgers’ lead is 8 percentage points, 40 percent to 32 percent.
Voters don’t register by party in Washington, so pollsters have to ask them how they would register if they had to. In Eastern Washington, voters who say they are independent seemed to tilt Republican in recent years, Elway said.
There’s a noticeable “gender gap” among voters surveyed. McMorris Rodgers enjoys a significant lead among male voters polled, with 51 percent saying they would vote to re-elect her and 28 percent saying they would vote for Brown.
Among female voters, however, Brown has a lead, with 46 percent saying they plan to vote for her compared to 38 percent saying they would vote for McMorris Rodgers.
One of the biggest indicators of how survey respondents say they are likely to vote was their view of the job President Donald Trump is doing. Half of the people polled said they disapprove of the job Trump is doing, while 45 percent said they approve.
The poll suggests that Trump’s loyal base strongly supports his fellow Republican McMorris Rodgers. Among those who support Trump, 79 percent say they’ll vote for her, while 69 percent who disapprove of the job he’s doing plan to vote for Brown.
Nearly seven months before the election, the two candidates may be vying for a relatively small pool of undecided voters. Only 16 percent of those surveyed said they were undecided about their choice, which Elway said was about what he’d expect for a race with two relatively well-known candidates.
McMorris Rodgers has been in Congress for 14 years, but Brown, a former state legislator and university official, is also well known, he said.
“There’s not a lot of voters to get out there,” Elway said.