How clean is WA’s electricity? We lead the country in one way

Climate Lab is a Seattle Times initiative that explores the effects of climate change in the Pacific Northwest and beyond. The project is funded in part by The Bullitt Foundation, Mike and Becky Hughes, University of Washington and Walker Family Foundation, and its fiscal sponsor is the Seattle Foundation.

Hydropower is king in Washington.

Electricity from dams on rivers across the state made up over two-thirds of Washington’s energy generation in 2022.

That’s unique — and increasingly important as the U.S. strives to shift from energy sources like coal and natural gas.

Even with a hydro head start, it won’t get Washington all the way to a 100% carbon-free grid.

Drought and the warming threat to the snowpack will complicate the amount of power produced at the state’s dams. And the increasing use of air conditioning and the push to electrify everything from kitchen stoves to cars will increase demand.

Where does our electricity come from?

Depending on the year, Washington residents get over half of their electricity from hydropower. Natural gas and coal made up 10.4% and 8.6% of electricity respectively in 2022.

Wind made up 8% of our power and solar just 0.8%. Nuclear — mostly from Washington’s only commercial nuclear power plant in Richland — made up 4% of the state’s electricity use.

About an eighth of Washington’s electricity is labeled “unspecified,” which is usually purchased electricity where the seller has not identified its source. In the past, the Department of Commerce estimated a fuel breakdown for this type of electricity but created a new category in 2019.

Thanks to hydropower, the state enjoys some of the cheapest electricity in the nation, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Washington typically generates more electricity than there is demand in the state, and that excess hydroelectricity is usually sold elsewhere on the western grid. 

Like stock traders, electricity utilities buy and sell electricity in real-time and negotiate long-term contracts from a variety of electricity sources. Some utilities — like Seattle City Light — also generate electricity while buying it from other providers.

The federal Bonneville Power Administration is a major electricity utility and provides around 28% of the Northwest’s electricity. BPA is a nonprofit wholesale electricity provider that operates and transmits electricity from several federal dams in the Columbia River Basin, including the Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams.

There are around 40 hydropower dams in the state and dozens more across the Pacific Northwest, according to the Northwest Power and Conservation Council. Many were built at the turn of the 20th century and for some operators, the benefits of their removal, such as the restoration of salmon habitat, outweigh the costs of maintaining the aging equipment.

What are our dirtiest sources of power?

Washington has set goals to eliminate fossil fuels from its electricity generation altogether.

In 2019, lawmakers passed the Clean Energy Transformation Act, which calls for utilities to eliminate coal from their portfolios by 2025, become greenhouse gas “neutral” by 2030 (using “renewable energy certificates” to offset emissions) and have 100% renewable or nonemitting (likely nuclear) electricity by 2045.

Though some utilities are still partial owners of out-of-state coal plants, Washington’s last coal-fired power plant in Centralia is scheduled to close in 2025. To become compliant with the CETA, utilities will also have to stop buying electricity that is sourced from coal, which produces more emissions than natural gas (which is mostly methane).

Some utilities like Puget Sound Energy and PacifiCorp, which services parts of the Yakima Valley, will have a heavier lift to comply with the CETA, said Glenn Blackmon, the Washington Department of Commerce’s energy policy director.

In 2022, hydropower and coal each made up around a fourth of Puget Sound Energy’s portfolio, and natural gas made up just under a third. In comparison, Seattle got 80% of its power from either its dams on the Skagit and Pend Oreille rivers or from BPA.

To replace fossil-fuel-powered electricity, more renewable resources, likely wind and solar, will need to come online as well as transmission and storage to support it, said Blackmon. He estimated Washington will need around 22 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2035 to replace how much coal and natural gas it currently generates each year and to meet additional demands from the electrification of homes and vehicles.

One wind-solar project in Benton County would provide less than 5% of that total need and is taking years longer than expected to build, due to local opposition. Puget Sound Energy also has plans to build a 248-megawatt wind farm in Montana that is scheduled to start generating electricity in 2025.

So what does this mean for global climate change?

Washington makes up about 1.5% of the country’s emissions and is among only a handful of states with aggressive plans to phase out fossil fuels.

But the efforts and challenges facing the state have lessons for the rest of the country.

Though Washington already relies on hydropower for electricity, droughts have challenged utilities across the hydropower-dependent West.

In 2023, a dry summer forced Washington utilities, including Seattle City Light, to buy more electricity. Seattle City Light also had to intermittently pause dam operations due to a wildfire in the North Cascades, which led to a 4% surcharge on top of a 4.5% rate increase. Researchers say those challenges will only continue.