Survey shows sharp geographic divide in how WA residents see the state

Folks in King County are a lot less happy with the way things are going in Washington now than they were last year, a new survey shows. Eastern Washington residents, on the other hand, are feeling better than they were about the direction in which the state is heading.

I’m guessing it may have something to do with the election of President Donald Trump.

Portland-based DHM Research conducted an online survey of 500 Washington residents to assess the overall mood and outlook of state residents. The survey was conducted from Apr. 16-20.

One survey question asked respondents if Washington was headed in the right direction or on the wrong track. In King County, just 35% of residents said the state was going in the right direction, while nearly half — 48% — felt we were on the wrong track. Seventeen percent said they didn’t know.

When DHM asked the same question of 500 Washington residents last year in July, the responses were reversed. Back then, the majority of King County residents — 54% — said things were going in the right direction, while just 36% felt we were on the wrong track, and 10% didn’t know.

That’s a remarkable shift in perception in less than one year’s time.

What caused the change? The survey doesn’t tell us, but I’m guessing in liberal King County, the more negative outlook is related to feelings about the Trump presidency and its impact on the state.

Not surprisingly, in more conservative Eastern Washington, the opposite thing happened: Perceptions of the state’s outlook improved significantly since last year.

Back in July, a clear majority of folks east of the Cascades — 57% — felt the state was on the wrong track, while just 31% saw things going in the right direction. Twelve percent didn’t know.

That’s pretty much flipped in the new survey, which shows just 35% of Eastern Washingtonians felt things are going in the wrong direction. The majority — 52% — said we’re on the right track, and 13% didn’t know.

“It’s the first time, since I’ve been running these polls, that a majority in Eastern Washington say things are headed in the right direction,” said Devin Bales, director of research at DHM, in an email. “I’m sure there are a ton of factors at play, but I do think it goes to show how national politics can have a big influence in how folks feel about the direction of their state or community.”

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The same trend is evident if we look at the survey results along political party lines. Among Washington Democrats, the share who felt the state was moving in the right direction fell from 60% in July to 48% in the new survey. Among Republicans, the share shot up from 29% in July to 45% in the new survey.

Among Independents, there wasn’t a significant change. Twenty-eight percent felt the state was headed in the right direction last year, compared with 25% in the new survey.

Statewide, a slim plurality — 45% — said the state was on the wrong track in the new survey, with 40% saying it was headed in the right direction. Fifteen percent said they didn’t know. That’s pretty close to the statewide results last year, when 48% said the state was on the wrong track, 41% said things were going in the right direction, and 10% said they didn’t know.

The statewide results do not show statistically significant differences in perceptions of Washington between men and women or between racial and ethnic groups, nor were there significant differences between respondents with higher and lower incomes.

But there were more negative perceptions of the state among older Washingtonians than among younger ones. Fifty-three percent of those age 45-64, and 57% of those 65 and older, felt the state was headed in the wrong direction. Among those under 30, just 25% did.

DHM Research surveyed a representative sample of Washington voters and weighted the data to accurately reflect the population based on political affiliation as well as area of the state, age, gender, race, income and education. The margin of error for this survey is plus or minus 4.4%.