Plummeting WA math scores point to trouble. Time for course correction

It’s no fun being a Cassandra. That’s the shorthand term, inspired by a figure from Greek mythology, describing a person whose accurate prophecies — often foretelling disaster — are discounted and ignored.

For a decade the Seattle-based school finance expert Marguerite Roza has held that role, resolutely pointing out problems with Washington’s education system — from its funding model to, more recently, a frightening lack of urgency around declining student performance — only to be waved off as alarmist.

But it’s tough to dispute the numbers she presents. Research from Roza’s Edunomics Lab at Georgetown University shows this state has spent more on education in recent years than many others, while watching student scores fall precipitously.

To be fair, test results are not the only indicators of learning; any kid can have a bad day. But when an entire state is trending downward on tests — and there is a vast gap between students’ scores and their grades — it’s also fair to raise questions. Something is definitely not lining up.

Consider the gulf between eighth graders’ rising GPAs and their plummeting results on national math exams. While middle schoolers’ classroom grades improved to an average of 2.7 between 2013 and 2022 — the equivalent of a C+ — passing rates on the National Assessment of Educational Progress took a dive, dropping Washington from 12^th in the country to 25^th last year.

That downward trajectory started before the COVID-19 pandemic or the omnipresence of smartphones in schools, and it’s a serious concern for future jobseekers — our kids — in a state where the economy is built on technology and health care.

More troubling, until recently the state-level response to these red flags has been to minimize them. To assure parents that students are making progress with no major interventions necessary.

There are bright spots. Roza calls out the White River School District in Buckley; Nooksack Valley Middle School, north of Bellingham; and Maple Lawn Elementary in Sumner — all for showing progress while holding the line on spending. It behooves state leaders to seek out teachers in those districts and ask what’s working, what isn’t and then spread the word.

But the role of Washington’s Superintendent of Public Instruction has not traditionally focused on academic outcomes. It’s more of an administrative and political post, held for the last eight years by a former legislator. It’s long past time to shift that emphasis, and for school leaders at every level — state, district and building principals — to take responsibility for academic outcomes.

“If what you’ve been doing is not delivering progress, maybe it’s time to change what you’ve been doing,” Roza said dryly, during a media presentation last week.

Kids in other states are struggling too. But the response of their education leaders has been urgency. Tennessee, for example, has instituted tutoring and summer programs statewide. In Mississippi, educators notify parents when their child is below grade level and update them every quarter until the problem is fixed. Washington has displayed nothing close to that level of resolve.

Large government systems tend to avoid upheaval, preferring the stability of the status quo. But, as Roza points out, this is not a status quo moment. This is a five-alarm fire.