LOS ANGELES — Tuesday is not the first time California has tried to reopen its economy during the pandemic.
But officials are hopeful it will be the last.
In the past, efforts to lift or ease restrictions on businesses and activities have triggered new surges of COVID-19. That deadly domino effect played out last spring, and again in the fall.
Those previous attempts pale in comparison to the scope of the state’s full reopening — which will see the end of virtually all coronavirus-related capacity restrictions, as well as masking and physical distancing requirements.
However, with the coronavirus fading dramatically, and vaccinations on the rise, there’s optimism that history won’t repeat itself.
Coronavirus in full retreat
At its peak in January, the state was reporting 45,000 coronavirus cases a day. Now, California is reporting an average of fewer than 1,000 new coronavirus cases per day over the most recent seven-day period, according to data compiled by The Times.
The last time case counts were this low was March 31, 2020 — when the pandemic was just beginning to roar to life and testing was so limited that many infections likely went undetected.
California’s latest seven-day average of 896 new coronavirus cases per day comes even as roughly 107,000 tests were conducted daily over that same period, Los Angeles Times data show. In the late spring of 2020, the earliest time that reliable data were available, there were only about 50,000 tests conducted daily.
COVID-19 hospitalizations are now at the lowest levels since California began systematically tracking that statistic on March 30, 2020, when 1,617 people with COVID-19 were in hospitals. As of Sunday, there were 939 people with COVID-19 in California’s hospitals — down about 95% from the peak of nearly 22,000 hospitalized in early January.
An average of 20 COVID-19 related deaths have been reported daily over the last week, the lowest such number since early April 2020. At its peak, California was reporting 549 COVID-19 deaths a day over a weekly period.
In California, 56% of residents of all ages — and 71% of adults — have received at least one dose of vaccine. In total, 14 states now have at least 70% of their adults at least partially vaccinated, achieving a goal set by President Biden weeks before a July 4 target.
The biggest concern now for many officials is persuading people who have not been vaccinated to get their shots.
California remains short of the level of vaccine coverage — usually estimated between 70% and 85% — believed necessary to finally put the pandemic in the rearview mirror.
Only about 47% of residents statewide are fully vaccinated, meaning they have either received both shots of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines or the single required dose of Johnson & Johnson, Times data show.
An unknown number of residents who are not vaccinated may also be temporarily armored against the coronavirus because they developed natural immunity after being infected.
As of late May, the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services estimated that 63% of residents there had protection from COVID-19 — 38% because of prior infection.
There are still concerns about localized outbreaks in places with low vaccination rates, such as rural Northern California and the Central Valley. One potential issue might be too few farmworkers getting vaccinated, a particular risk because they travel extensively throughout the state’s vast agricultural areas.
Gaps also persist among racial and ethnic groups. In L.A. County, young Latino and Black people continue to be less vaccinated on the whole than their white, Asian or Native American counterparts.
Reopenings without spikes
Tuesday’s reopening comes after months of gradually easing business restrictions statewide.
Those changes — which allowed higher capacity in retail establishments and more indoor group events — did not bring new rises in the coronavirus. In fact, virus spread kept declining.
Unvaccinated still at risk
Californians who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 are now able to shed their face masks in most situations. But there’s also an expectation that unvaccinated people may violate rules that generally instruct them to continue wearing masks.
If they start going without face coverings while in close contact with other unvaccinated people, and vaccination rates are not high enough to prevent outbreaks from occurring, it’s possible more unvaccinated people will be at higher risk for contracting COVID-19.
Testing still essential
L.A. County official recommended testing in these circumstances:
— When anyone comes down with signs or symptoms of COVID-19, regardless of vaccination status. (It’s extraordinarily rare for a fully vaccinated person to come down with symptoms of COVID-19 — only 0.03% of 3.3 million L.A. County residents who had been fully vaccinated as of May 7 later tested positive for the coronavirus. Only 0.002% were hospitalized.)
— Unvaccinated people who discover they’ve been in close contact with someone who has been confirmed to have COVID-19.
— Unvaccinated people who have been potentially exposed to the coronavirus.
Public health experts say there are things to watch out for in the coming weeks and months that could interrupt progress.
In places with low vaccination rates, “we’re gonna see outbreaks,” said Dr. Mark Ghaly, California Health and Human Services secretary.
For people who are still unvaccinated, experts are increasingly concerned about the danger posed by the Delta variant of the coronavirus, first detected in India.
Some areas of California have vaccination rates that lag far behind the statewide figure. Although 56% of Californians are at least partially vaccinated, some counties lag behind, including Riverside (45%); San Bernardino (42%); Merced (39%); Tulare and Kern (38%); and Kings (31%), Times data show.
Many rural Northern California counties also have a low rate, such as Siskiyou (40%), Shasta (36%), Yuba (34%), Tehama (30%) and Lassen (21%).