A closer look at the “Brexit” referendum.
LONDON — Britain will hold a referendum Thursday on whether the country will leave the European Union (EU), a process often referred to as “Brexit.”
Last week, a member of Parliament, Jo Cox, was killed. Both sides suspended campaigning as a gesture of mourning, amid a debate about the tone of Britain’s politics.
Q: What is Britain deciding?
A: The referendum question will ask voters whether the United Kingdom should “remain a member of the European Union” or “leave the European Union.”
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Q: Why did campaigning stop?
A: A member of Parliament, Jo Cox, 41, was gunned down Thursday outside a library in her district in Birstall, England. With the referendum days away, campaigning was suspended as a gesture of respect. Cox was a strong backer of Britain’s remaining inside the bloc.
Q: What are the reasons for staying and for leaving?
A: Those who favor leaving argue that the EU has changed enormously in the past four decades with regard to the size and the reach of its bureaucracy, diminishing British influence and sovereignty.
Those who want to stay say that a medium-size island needs to be part of a larger bloc of like-minded countries to have real influence and security in the world, and that leaving would be economically costly.
Q: Who is arguing to stay, and who to go?
REMAIN: Prime Minister David Cameron leads the “Remain” camp, and he could lose his job if his effort fails. Behind him are most of the Conservative government he leads, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party, which is strongly pro-Europe.
Most independent economists and large businesses favor staying in, as do the most recent heads of Britain’s intelligence services. President Obama, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President Xi Jinping of China also want Britain to stay in.
LEAVE: The “Leave” camp is led by Michael Gove, the justice minister, and Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London. Nearly half the Conservative members of Parliament favor leaving, as do the members of the U.K. Independence Party, or UKIP, and its leader, Nigel Farage. Their main issues are sovereignty and immigration.
Abroad, the French National Front leader, Marine Le Pen, favors Brexit, as do other anti-Europe parties in Germany, the Netherlands and elsewhere.
Q: What is the history?
A: The EU began in 1951 as the European Coal and Steel Community, an effort by six nations to heal the fissures of World War II through duty-free trade. In 1957, the Treaty of Rome created the European Economic Community, or Common Market. Britain tried to join later, but President Charles de Gaulle of France vetoed its application in 1963 and in 1967. Britain finally joined in 1973.
Q: Has a vote like this happened before?
A: Yes. A referendum was held in 1975, two years after Britain joined the European Economic Community, on whether it should stay. More than 67 percent of Britons voted in favor of staying.
Q: What impact would an exit have on Britain’s economy?
A: This is an essential and divisive question. The economic effect of an exit would depend on what settlement was negotiated, especially on whether Britain would retain access to the single market for duty-free trade and financial services. But that would probably require accepting freedom of movement and labor for EU citizens, which is one of the main complaints the “Leave” camp has about bloc membership.
Most economists favor remaining in the bloc and say an exit would cut growth, weaken the pound and hurt the City of London, Britain’s financial center. Even economists who favor an exit say growth would be affected in the short and medium terms, though they also say Britain would be better off by 2030.
Q: Why now?
A: It has to do with a decades-long rift in the governing Conservative Party. A vocal minority has demanded that Britain leave the EU since the time of Margaret Thatcher. That minority grew in opposition during the Tony Blair years, and views on Europe have become a litmus test for Conservative candidates, because grass-roots Conservatives tend to favor a British exit.
To pacify his party and undermine the anti-EU UKIP, Cameron promised to hold the referendum should he be re-elected prime minister. Nearly half of all Conservative members of Parliament, including six Cabinet ministers, favor leaving the bloc.
Q: Who is voting?
A: British citizens 18 and older can vote, as can citizens abroad who have been registered to vote at home in the past 15 years. Also eligible are residents of Britain who are citizens of Ireland or of the Commonwealth, which consists of 53 countries, including Australia, Canada, India and South Africa.
Unlike in general elections, members of the House of Lords may vote, as can Commonwealth citizens in Gibraltar, a British overseas territory. Citizens of the EU living in Britain cannot vote, unless they are citizens of Cyprus, Ireland or Malta.
Q: Is this vote final?
A: Yes, at least for the foreseeable future. If Britons vote to leave, there will be an initial two-year negotiation with the EU about the terms of the divorce, which is unlikely to be amicable. The negotiation will decide Britain’s relationship with the bloc. The major issues would surround trade. If Britain wants to remain in the EU’s common market — the world’s largest trading bloc, with 500 million people — Brussels is expected to exact a steep price, to discourage other countries from leaving.
Q: What is likely to happen?
A: As the campaign has progressed, the odds against Brexit have gradually become smaller. Betfair, a betting exchange, has “Remain” at 60 percent probability.