Heavy springtime snow is falling in the mountains of New Mexico and Colorado. As the responsible storm system turns to the northeast, snowfall intensity will pick up in much of Colorado in particular on Tuesday, with several feet accumulating in the high country just west of Denver.
Winter storm warnings are in effect for the eastern Rockies from the Colorado-Wyoming border to north-central New Mexico. Snow totals will generally be 10 to 25 inches but could be as high as 3 to 4 feet in the hardest-hit locations.
Travel will be difficult at times in some alpine towns in and around ski resorts. In addition to widespread moderate to major effects in the eastern mountains of Colorado, the highest peaks west of Colorado Springs — such as Pikes Peak — and those southwest of Pueblo could see extreme effects, including downed trees and power outages.
On the High Plains, a soaking rain totaling around 1 to 3 inches is on tap from Denver to Pueblo and southeast to the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. It could lead to scattered flooding, especially around creeks and rivers.
Unfolding snowstorm
Locations near Taos Ski Valley in northern New Mexico reported 20 and 22 inches of slow early Tuesday. About 1 to 2 feet is common in the region’s mountains as snow continues to pile up.
Snow levels, initially as high as 11,000 feet, are expected to drop to about 7,000 feet by early Wednesday.
While the storm was focused on northern New Mexico into southern Colorado through Monday night, the heaviest snow should fall on the eastern ranges of the Rockies on Tuesday. This zone of Colorado could see widespread accumulations of 1 to 3 feet in the high country.
Slick conditions are also possible down to pass level heading into Tuesday night. At Raton Pass in northern New Mexico, just south of the Colorado border at an elevation of about 8,000 feet, up to 3 to 6 inches of snow is forecast through Wednesday morning as lows dip into the 20s.
The National Weather Service is reminding affected communities that springtime snow is wet and heavy, a combination that can lead to health hazards while shoveling. The agency cautioned people to stay hydrated and go slow while digging out.
High country avalanche threat
Avalanches will be a risk in the backcountry, primarily in Colorado but probably also on some of northern New Mexico’s highest peaks. There is a considerable risk (Level 3 of 5) of avalanches in the eastern mountains, and a moderate risk (Level 2) for the rest of the region, according to the Colorado Avalanche Information Center.
Snow slide threats will be near and above the tree line. This is primarily for the highest elevations around 11,500 feet and includes several resorts.
“The new snow will quickly increase the avalanche danger. Expect to easily trigger avalanches once you find more than about 12 inches of new or drifted snow,” the center warned. “Watch for subtle changes in snow consistency and do not proceed into stiffer, chalkier, or harder snow.”
Season bookend
Some locations in New Mexico and southern Colorado should end up with their biggest snowstorms of this season happening in May and (last) October, including around Taos, where it was snowing heavily Tuesday morning.
Both events are at least a month outside what might be considered the cold season. The high elevation of the Rockies enables it.
Temperatures typically drop about 3 to 4 degrees with every 1,000-foot increase in elevation. While a place like Denver may have a chilly rain — with temperatures in the 40s — it could be a much different story many hundreds of feet higher and not much of a drive to the west.
Throughout this winter, the jet stream (or storm highway) stayed mainly to the north of the same region.
The jet stream tends to be wavier in the fall and winter, which allows it to “dig” southward toward New Mexico. There is also a higher likelihood these weather systems cut off from the flow for a time, allowing them to sit and dump precipitation for days.
Short-lived winter blast
Once this event finally gets a move on, the weather should turn warmer. Above-normal temperatures are strongly favored in the central U.S. to the intermountain west once it ends and into next week.
By mid-May, new storm risks may return. That much closer to summer, though, it currently seems unlikely we’ll be watching another major snowstorm this spring.