At more than eight-and-a-half years, this is one of the longest bull markets in history. But how much longer can it continue?

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At more than eight-and-a-half years, this is one of the longest bull markets in history. Half of American households don’t own any stocks and few of the remainder own them directly. But if you’ve been invested in equities, this has (probably) been a good run.

But how much longer can it continue?

The bull case: More money will flood in from the wealthy thanks to the Republican tax cuts; as long as earnings continue to be strong, the market has running room; more optimists will jump in, regardless of stock valuations.

The bear case: More money will lead to a dangerous speculative bubble; this market is overdue for a correction, especially in tech shares; more volatility as the Federal Reserve keeps raising rates and assuming a normal monetary policy; the international dangers from the Trump administration’s exit from 70 years of American foreign and trade policy.

What do you predict?

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This Week’s Links:

A big list of risk factors for investors in 2018 | MarketWatch

The world economy in 2018 | Project Syndicate

Five questions for the Fed next year | Tim Duy

Tax overhaul retreated from democracy | Regulatory Review

The end game is privatization — vouchers are only one step | Angry Bear

What sounds better to you: A guaranteed federal income or a federal job guarantee? | Naked Capitalism

The world is near a tipping point | Mohamed El-Erian

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Today’s Econ Haiku:

What, Sweden worry

About the robots coming?

Humans have health care

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