How will things fare over the next four years? Please vote, stay for the top links and the haiku.
As today’s employment report makes clear — 227,000 new jobs in January, six years of growth — Donald Trump is inheriting a strong economy from President Obama. Can Trump, within the limits of what any president can do, keep it going?
On the plus and potential-plus side, growth continues. Trump promises to repeal Dodd-Frank and other financial regulations. He vows to roll back “regulatory burdens” on business. Tax cuts to the wealthiest will add to their pocketbooks and, perhaps, the stock market. He wants to do everything possible to goose fossil-fuels extraction. Like a red-state governor, he wants to court or browbeat companies into keeping jobs here or returning them to the country, at least in media one-off events.
Minus side? His impulsiveness and disdain for norms shatter the “certainty” business is supposed to like. Trump’s trade policies could hurt both exporters and importers, as well as U.S. companies in the global supply chain. The anti-immigration stance could deprive the tech sector of talent (more about that in my Sunday column). A repeal of the modest Obama financial regulations might encourage big banks to go on a dangerous binge. We already learned how laissez-faire and “self-regulation” turns out. Workers’ bargaining power will fall even further, meaning they will have less to spend — and average people power the consumer economy. Many of those “regulatory burdens” protect us from the costs of environmental damage and injured or killed workers. Then there are his administration’s many conflicts of interest. Finally, Trump will replace Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve chair and would likely politicize the central bank.
Care to make a call for the next few years?
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The poll has expired. Thank you for your submissions.
This Week’s Links:
• An unstable economic order? | Mohamed Ed-Erian
• The end of Trump’s market honeymoon | Nouriel Roubini
• Trading in Trump’s lies | Brad DeLong
• Germany, the euro and currency manipulation | Paul Krugman
Today’s Econ Haiku:
Ted Fick never fit
Old-school private-sector guy
But that ship has sailed