America's Navy is stronger, smaller, more dominant, more vulnerable and more lethal than at any time since World War I, in case you were confused by Monday night's presidential debate.
WASHINGTON — America’s Navy is stronger, smaller, more dominant, more vulnerable and more lethal than at any time since World War I, in case you were confused by Monday night’s presidential debate.
The raw numbers: The U.S. Navy today has 286 ships. In 1916 it had 245, and by 1917, 342. By the end of World War II, it had 6,768 ships.
At the height of the Cold War in 1987, the Navy boasted 594 ships.
The recent low came in 2007 when it had 278 ships.
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In 1886, the Navy had only 38 ships, the most common of which were “screw sloops.” The modern Navy doesn’t list any screw sloops.
Jacob Stokes, a researcher at the Center for a New American Security, said it’s important to remember that when the U.S. force reached its peaks, there was always a similarly armed foe: Germany, Japan, the Soviet Union.
“Today, we don’t have a peer competitor,” he noted.
U.S. naval superiority today is unquestioned. No other nation has more than two operational aircraft carriers.
The United States has 11, and the other nations with two are Italy and Spain.
China, the frequent foil in this discussion, just launched its first carrier but does not yet have planes capable of landing on it, and it does not yet have a single “carrier battle group.”
“China won’t be showing up on the California coast anytime soon,” Stokes said.
Max Boot, who advises GOP candidate Mitt Romney on defense issues, said the Navy “is incomparably stronger today than it was in 1916. But today’s Navy doesn’t have to fight the Navy of 1916.”
He noted potential enemies China and Iran, and pirates. The threats he noted include terrorism, missiles and cyber-weapons (none necessarily specific to naval power).
“No question, the quality of our ships today is the highest it’s ever been, but at some point quality can’t substitute for a lack of quantity, and that’s the situation we’re in today,” he argues.
James R. Holmes, an associate professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College, said: “We judge naval combat power on a relative scale. That’s why ‘the Navy is smaller than it has been since 1917’ and ‘the Navy is bigger than the next 13 navies combined’ both contain a grain of truth but are basically factoids.
“Numbers count; the tonnage of ships counts; but these one-liners tell us little.”
In the modern world, the U.S. Navy is very unlikely to be engaged in a traditional high-seas battle.
Instead, potential battles would be close to land, meaning that naval power (on both sides) would have to include air power, ground power and missile capacity.
Iran cannot match American naval power, but it can pose a potential threat if it uses smaller boats to “swarm” more powerful but less numerous U.S. ships near a coast.
“You also have to be careful about just counting hulls,” Holmes said. “A nuclear-powered aircraft carrier counts as one hull; so does a minesweeper.”