For fifteen months, Seattleites have watched their new mayor, Mike McGinn, and wondered, Could this former environmental activist become mayor for all of Seattle?

For fifteen months, Seattleites have watched their new mayor, Mike McGinn, and wondered, Could this former environmental activist become mayor for all of Seattle?

At the end of a year and a quarter, McGinn looks like he will be a one-term mayor. He is too caught up in tunnel politics to make people feel he is running the whole city effectively. A new Elway Poll shows his public approval ratings are in George Bush territory: only 28 percent of Seattleites polled ranked his job performance as good or excellent.

Bush, by the by, left office after eight years with only 22 percent favorability numbers.

McGinn was elected in November 2009, but has been such an unusual leader that people began wondering right away if he could stretch enough to be a mayor, yes, for the environmentalists and young voters who elected him, but also for other Seattleites who prefer a more managerial, CEO approach. My rule of thumb is to give neophyte politicians like McGinn until July 4 of their first year to see what they will be like.

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Late last year, I realized McGinn was not stepping up in the way one might hope. I wrote a column about McGinn and his politics of chaos. More recently, I have been thinking about the election of 2013. Someone other than McGinn will win that year, I suspect, and so the thinking aloud has begun.